Market outlook: September 2020
Main milestones this month: Uneven Covid-19 situation: more flare-ups in the summer than expected but good news on the immunisation front with some vaccines likely to be ready earlier than anticipated. Selective social distancing measures could be implemented to try and avoid lockdowns in the spring. It could take the US two years and Europe slightly longer to recover their 2019 GDP levels, while Latam and the European periphery could take at least three years. And more
COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe and the difficult situation in the US and Latin America may slow down economic recovery. The implementation of selective measures of social distancing could predominate, to try and avoid the confinements of spring. The strength and speed of the announced economic measures (monetary and fiscal) could protect markets from the worst-case scenario. This is a cyclical recession, with a sharp drop in supply and demand, but it will be different in nature from the 2008/09 crisis. The European Union could approve the recovery fund in mid-July, with positive economic and political repercussions.