Main milestones this month: The second wave of Covid-19 will slow down to a greater or lesser extent an economic recovery which will nevertheless continue, supported by fiscal and monetary stimuli and the foreseeable arrival of vaccines in the spring of 2021. And much more.
Main milestones this month: The economic recovery should follow the expected path thanks to the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, and the foreseeable arrival of vaccines. The authorities will avoid general lock-downs as much as possible, unless there the health systems are once again overwhelmed. The US is expected to take two years and Europe slightly longer to recover their 2019 GDP levels, while Latam and the European periphery could take at least three years. And much more.
BBVA in Switzerland is offering customers the possibility of choosing between different currencies to open deposits and make investments and transfers. The range of currency deposits offered to customers of BBVA in Switzerland is very wide. At present, 70% of our customers hold two or more currencies in their portfolios, such as the US dollar, euro, Swiss franc and Mexican peso.
Main milestones this month: Uneven Covid-19 situation: more flare-ups in the summer than expected but good news on the immunisation front with some vaccines likely to be ready earlier than anticipated. Selective social distancing measures could be implemented to try and avoid lockdowns in the spring. It could take the US two years and Europe slightly longer to recover their 2019 GDP levels, while Latam and the European periphery could take at least three years. And more
The second quarter has seen a strong performance by commodities. Since the market shock in February and March triggered by two black swan events - the Covid-19 and oil crises - the asset has rebounded vigorously. Below we compare the performance of the main commodities, the reasons for the price increases and their possible future behaviour.
COVID-19 outbreaks in Europe and the difficult situation in the US and Latin America may slow down economic recovery. The implementation of selective measures of social distancing could predominate, to try and avoid the confinements of spring. The strength and speed of the announced economic measures (monetary and fiscal) could protect markets from the worst-case scenario. This is a cyclical recession, with a sharp drop in supply and demand, but it will be different in nature from the 2008/09 crisis. The European Union could approve the recovery fund in mid-July, with positive economic and political repercussions.
The developed economies are gradually reopening but the downward revision of economic growth in 2020 continues for now. There is an increasing likelihood of recovery and economic growth returning in the third quarter. The strength and speed of the announced economic measures (monetary and fiscal) could protect markets from the worst-case scenario. This is a cyclical recession, with a sharp drop in supply and demand, but it will be shorter and different in nature from the 2008/09 crisis. The European Union is negotiating a recovery fund with positive political repercussions in terms of cohesion and the European project.
The first asset we think about when it comes to protecting our wealth, in a situation where the economy has entered a recession and the central banks are flooding the markets with liquidity, is usually gold.
The trend in the coronavirus contagion curve and the improvement in the Chinese economy acting as a leading indicator are positive signs. It increases the probability that we will be in the central scenario in which recovery and economic growth return in Q3. The strength and speed of the announced economic measures (monetary and fiscal) could protect markets from the worst-case scenario. It is a cyclical recession, with a sharp drop in supply and demand, but shorter and different in nature from the 2008/09 crisis. Headline inflation could fall in the coming months due to the drop in oil prices, to gradually rise again in 2021.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude, closed last 19th April 2020 at - $ 37.63, something that seemed impossible. It has never closed negative at maturity before. The Price on the spot contract was also negative, due to the lack of storage
The increase in economic uncertainty due to the spread of the coronavirus outside China may last a few weeks. The expansionary cycle should continue negative impact concentrated in Q1 and recovery from Q2, with an impact of -0.2% of global GDP. The alternative high-risk scenario is that the virus becomes a pandemic, with a negative impact on Q1 and Q2 and -0.5% on global GDP. This uncertainty has occurred at a time of improvement in global cyclical indicators, which will help rebuild confidence. In China, there has already been an upturn in production levels and they are also currently implementing tax incentives, a pattern that can be repeated in other regions.
Gold is considered by many investors to be the perfect safe-haven asset during an economic recession or crises
The commodities market is probably one the least known and most unpredictable for the majority of investors.
If there is a fact that shows us the importance of living in a sustainable environment and focusing on the environment is that 29 July was the Earth Overshoot Day, i.e. the day when humanity consumed all the resources available for that year. The current pace is increasing and growing exponentially every single year.
At BBVA Switzerland, we are conscious that our main mission is to safeguard our clients' wealth, but this objective is not incompatible with maintaining our commitment to a sustainable future. What are profitable and socially responsible bonds?
Green technologies, such as renewable energies, energy efficiency and electric vehicles, can help to reduce the impact of human action on climate change. In 2007, the European Investment Bank issued the world's first green bonds aimed at financing and developing these technologies. In Spain, BBVA signed its first green loan in 2017, worth 500 million euros.
The European Central Bank's recent meeting and its decision not to raise rates until the summer of 2019 is an excellent opportunity to perform an analysis on the next steps in the Eurozone's monetary policy.
The low volatility during the first quarter of 2018 appears to have come to an end. A look at the euro-dollar (EURUSD) exchange rate shows a marked change in price after the first rate rise this year, in a decision taken by the FED in its last meeting on 21 March, while awaiting the definitive consolidation of the inflation data in the US.