The positive balance and challenges for 2020
The financial markets, supported by the actions of the world's central banks, have performed very well during 2019, which has allowed us to offer our customers very significant returns in an environment of low-interest rates and moderate economic growth.
The Federal Reserve lowers the reference rates and applies new stimuli
The Central Bank of the United States (Fed) has again lowered the reference rates for the third consecutive time during 2019. Far are the forecasts of rate hikes at the end of 2018 when our forecast was, and continues to be, that the Federal Reserve won't be able to upload them for a long time (years) and there is still a long way down.
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Oil and geopolitical risk
Geopolitical risk increases affecting the price of certain commodities in the short term, although its long-term influence, is very low we do not advise basing investments on it.
Investors are holding fire from the central banks
Somewhat surprisingly, we're still seeing global investors paying an inordinate amount of attention to the decisions from the central banks in general and the Federal Reserve in particular.
The global economic deterioration forces to lower the reference rates
The global economic downturn has once more obliged the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to change its monetary policy and begin to cut its official rates.
Central Banks are the major players
Valuations of risk assets are very tight so the return depends more than ever on the Central Banks.
Invest in the current socio-economic environment
Structural changes in the socioeconomic environment cause changes in the levels of central bank rates
Trends and behaviour in financial markets
This is significant when it is investors themselves who decide whether to buy or sell, sometimes compulsively, because it leads to volatility in stock markets and other financial markets.
The importance of diversification for investors
The debt levels of governments and companies with respect to GDP are at a record levels, something we should take into account when investing
Equity market analysis and valuations
Equity market valuations are at historically very high levels, which implies that long-term yields for investors will be lower than in the past.
How do the rate hikes affect investors?
The United States Federal Reserve has implemented further rate hikes, as it has been announcing for some time. No clear indication has been given as to how far they will continue to rise, and therefore most investors think that there will be further hikes in the remaining months of 2018 and throughout 2019.
Investors and the need of searching for value
In a context where it is not easy to find undervalued assets or assets with an interesting risk return scenario, we must strive to select the right investment opportunities searching for value. BBVA in Switzerland, in line with its focus on capital preservation and capitalizing assets in the medium and long term, believes that some specific assets are still attractive to investors.
Consequences of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve
Only a few months ago we commented on the process of increases in reference rates by the Federal Reserve of the United States and how this process can affect the economy and the financial markets. It may be interesting to return to the subject given the situation of some countries and the dynamics of the global economy in recent weeks.
The effects of a strong dollar on the economy
During May and June we have seen a major appreciation in the USD, US Dollar, in relation to the rest of the global currencies, especially with respect to certain emerging countries’ currencies, such as the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira.
The importance of US interest rates
Over the last two years, we have witnessed interest rate increases by the US Central Bank (Fed), from the levels of 0% a few years ago, to the current 1.75%. This rise of 1.75% has occurred at a lower rate than in previous periods, which may have caused us to be unaware of its importance and its influence on the global economy.
Investment trends in private banking
The global economic reality has changed significantly over the past few years impacting decisively on the style and way in which investors manage their wealth.
Economic fragility despite of positive figures
Most of the developed countries continue publishing positive macroeconomic figures and those reflecting growth and economic activity in particular. This could have an important effect on the trend in global financial asset prices.
The expected trend in benchmark rates
At the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve began official rate hikes at a much slower pace than on other occasions and with no apparent reasons for doing so, because neither inflation nor economic growth had passed thresholds for concern.
The US stock markets break their all-time high records
In July, the S&P 500, which represents the capitalisation of the largest US corporations, reached all-time highs in North American stock markets, accumulating important yields in recent years.
How does the monetary politics affect our portfolios?
Draghi’s statements at the end of June indicating that reflationary forces (higher nominal growth and inflation) were replacing the deflationary fears of previous quarters, had a swift impact on the financial markets, producing sharp increases in long-term interest rates and a subsequent fall in bond prices across almost all the geographic regions.
The world stock market hits new all-time highs
The intense momentum or positive inertia on the financial markets today has catapulted world equity indices to new all-time highs, particularly highlighting the monthly performance both by countries in Europe, driven by the election results in France and those more closely tied to the emerging economies.